India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2022 is expected to grow 9.2% on the back of improved performance by agriculture, manufacturing, mining and robust service sector, according to the first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Office ( NSO) on Friday. 

In fiscal year 21, a contraction of 7.3 percent was reported as the country was grappling with the rising cases of Covid-19 infection and was under a complete lockdown, halting many economic activities. 

Releasing the first advance estimates for 2021-22, the National Statistical Office (NSO) stated, ''The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2 percent as compared to the contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21.''

The manufacturing sector is expected to grow at the rate of 12.5% this fiscal corresponding to a 7.2% contraction in the previous year. 

The mining and quarrying sector is now forecast to register 14.3% of growth as against an 8.5% contraction a year ago. Farm output may register a growth of 3.9% versus 3.6% in FY21.

The NSO outlook of 9.2 percent for FY22 comes below the projection of 9.5 percent by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Meanwhile, the economic research team of the State Bank Of India also projects GDP numbers for FY22 to be revised upwards to about 9.5 percent because it believes even though the rising infections impact mobility, the economic activity is less likely to be hampered much.

“We believe that NSO’s estimate is on the conservative side, as the calculated GDP growth for H2 FY22 for construction comes at –0.9 percent and for financing, insurance, real estate & business services is at a mere 2 per cent for H2 FY22.”

“We still believe that real GDP will grow at around 9.5 per cent in FY22,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, in SBI’s economic research report “Ecowrap”.

As per the NSO statistics, the real GVA is projected to be at ₹135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, versus ₹124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21, demonstrating an increase of 8.6%. FY22 nominal GDP growth would come at 17.6%, it stated.

Advance estimates are released to give insights to the finance ministry to work on the Budget for the next financial year.

According to the SBI research report, this is the second-highest nominal growth rate after 19.9% in 2010-11 and 17.1 percent in 2006-07. The economy is estimated to grow to be $3.1 trillion in dollar terms, depending on current prices.

An Omicron-led third wave has the potential to upend economic recovery across sectors, particularly in the contact-intensive services industry.

As per the first advance estimates of NSO, GDP in actual terms in 2021-22 will exceed the pre-COVID level of Rs 145.69 lakh crore in FY20.

NSO will release the Second Advance Estimates of National Income for 2021-22 and the GDP estimate for October-December, 2021 (Q3 2021-22) on February 28, 2022.